Let's Predict The 2026 FC Dallas Season

With the 2026 regular season just over a week away, prediction season is here. FC Dallas will play their final preseason game against Atlanta FC on Valentine's Day, but barring anything disastrous (please don't blame me if something bad does happen) the makeup of the Burn is well set.

If you remember last year's awards, it'll be the same format. I'll predict awards before the season, then re-examine them after the season to see how I did.

David Ferreria Award for FC Dallas MVP: Petar Musa

I'm not getting fooled again.

Last year at this time, I said the newly arrived Lucho Acosta would win this award. I also said if Acosta didn't, it'd be Musa doing so because of Acosta.

Yeah, I know.

The 2025 team MVP is easily the favorite for the award's 2026 edition. He's now tied for the single season goals record, and the team in general went as Musa went. When he was hot, the Toros were unstoppable. When he was absent or not on his game, the squad wasn't as effective.

In short: FC Dallas needs Musa to be great. The team as we understand it can't function properly without him. That's why he's the pick to click for the most valuable player.

Projected runner up: Michael Collodi

Paul Arriola Award for Newcomer of the Year: Ricky Louis

I've already talked about Louis on the Breakout Index's first edition, and nothing I've seen since has dissuaded me from my belief that he could be a star one day.

As of this writing Louis has another assist in Dallas' 2-1 Torneo de Tejas match against Houston. The #2 overall pick has been racking up goal contributions across Europe and Frisco thus far in training camp, doing it at both wing back and forward.

Dallas' draft pick record as of late has been stellar, and Louis appears to be cut from that same cloth. It'll be hard for him to crack the starting eleven at season's beginning, but with the inevitable injuries and match congestion he should get opportunities to contribute.

If you want more about Louis, check out his recent interview on the FC Dallas Agenda. His awareness and humility shine through, as does his competitive streak and desire to both improve and succeed. There's a lot to like about Louis from preseason, and there's reason to believe that will continue as the calendar flips to the regular season.

Projected runner up: Herman Johansson

Matt Hedges Award for Defender of the Year: Osaze Urhoghide

This was both easy and hard at the same time.

Coming into the season Dallas has a lot of promising defenders. Nolan Norris is poised for a breakout season. Herman Johansson has a lot of positives coming into his first MLS season. Even Shaq Moore and Bernard Kamungo showed enough last season that they could claim the award in this one.

Despite all that sometimes the correct answer is the obvious one, and in this case Urhoghide is the clear choice. Not only was he the best defender on FC Dallas last year, he deserved more discussion for MLS Best XI. As year two approaches for Dallas' anchor center back, this should be the year all of MLS understands his quality.

Not unlike Musa driving the offense forward, the defense will follow Urhoghide's lead. Should he maintain Best XI levels, the Burn defense becomes one of the league's stingiest units across 34 games. If not, there could be some cracks in the armor. I'm not betting on it though. I believe in the player and the person, and it's going to be a long time before I don't.

Projected runner up: Herman Johansson

Bernard Kamungo Award for Best NTSC Promoted Player: Caleb Swann

This is a difficult one to assign for 2026. Dallas' roster has been largely static coming into the season, with the major changes coming via international transfers. While Dallas did sign four players to Homegrown deals who played for North Texas, there isn't a lot of upward mobility for those players as of yet.

With that said out of the potential contenders for this award Swann feels the safest bet. He played 28 games for NTSC last year after coming through the Dallas academy, posting a pair of goals. He's drawn strong reviews from the coaching staff during this preseason which bodes well for his future.

If Swann is playing regularly for the first team this year one of two things has happened: He has turned into an undeniable supernova of a player or Dallas' midfield is decimated by injuries. The former would be really nice, but it doesn't feel likely. That's not a knock on Swann, his future is bright, more just a commentary on Dallas' midfield depth.

Projected runner up: Slade Starnes

Kenny Cooper Jr Award for 2025 Fan Favorite: Sam Sarver

The legend of Sam Sarver was one of 2025's most fun storylines. His MVP campaign with North Texas SC mixed with his dynamic first team debut made him a fan favorite with minimal minutes logged.

As 2026 draws near it's hard to imagine anyone dethroning Sarvinho as the fan's talisman. His preseason has shown him flash a new position: right wing back. He looks great at that spot while Johansson was busy getting his paperwork sorted. In the game against Red Bull New York last weekend he drew a penalty in the exact same way he did on his debut debut, even down to the location on the pitch.

Late game Dallas is going to be hellish to deal with if Sarver, Louis, and Anderson Julio are all on the pitch at the same time. A tired MLS back line having to handle that level of speed, skill, and chaos will be fascinating to watch from a Dallas standpoint. Sarver should lead that effort, which should earn him this award for a second straight season.

Projected runner up: Ricky Louis

Game of the Year: September 5th vs Sporting Kansas City

This one seems odd in theory, but hear me out.

This is Dallas' first MLS game back at Toyota Stadium post long nine game road trip and World Cup break. It'll be against a SKC side that not much is expected of in 2026 as they rebuild, offering the opportunity for a well oiled squad to beat up on the opposition.

We'll also know how good or not this team is by this game, and if the squad has grown as expected this should be a celebratory homecoming for all involved. Opening up a new side of the stadium with a huge win against a long time rival would be wonderful.

Projected runner up: May 13th vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Western Conference Finish: 5th place facing San Diego FC

The West is such a hard conference to predict this season. The bottom of the conference seems set with Kansas City, St. Louis, and potentially Houston. As does the top with LAFC, Vancouver, and Seattle. The great middle remains pliable and nebulous, which could benefit FC Dallas.

Success for the Burn will be finishing higher this year than they did in 2025, and even two places up would be a stark improvement. Soccerwise put out points over/unders a few days ago, pegging Dallas at 48.5. In 2025 either 48 or 49 gets Dallas 6th place, leaping over Austin who had 47.

A one or two win improvement feels reasonable for this squad, even flipping a couple losses into draws could do the trick. There's every reason to think Dallas will be better, which should come at the expense of some fellow Western competitors.

San Diego and Minnesota both feel like natural fallers, the Loons more so with all their turnover. It's not hard to envision SDFC going from first year darling to second year stable, which keeps them in the top 4 and puts them square in Dallas' sights for this prediction. Dallas will also want revenge after how Mikey Varas' squad treated the Toros on their inaugural trip to Snapdragon Stadium.

Leagues Cup Finish: Knockout Rounds I guess?

Note: While this is the case with every word written on this website, it's worth re-stating: The opinions expressed herein do no represent anyone but the author and should not be considered the opinion of any other person or organization.

A positioning statement: I don't like that FC Dallas isn't playing in the US Open Cup. Furthermore, I don't like that every MLS club isn't in the USOC every year. It has incredible history, and its continued depreciation by the league is in my opinion a mistake. If everyone worked together, this tournament should be a benchmark of American soccer.

Yet instead America's historic tournament is cast aside, ignored and in some cases actively inhibited by the country's leading professional soccer league. It's a miscarriage of the game, its history, and its future.

With that out of the way: FC Dallas by virtue of their playoff finish qualified for Leagues Cup this season. That tournament will begin August 4th with 36 clubs, 18 apiece from MLS and Liga MX. The first, second, and third place finishers will all get spots in the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup.

I have no real idea what to expect from this tournament, but Dallas' theoretical squad quality should see them through to the elimination round. Past that it's a coin flip, so predicting it would be foolhardy. Just get to the knockout rounds and we'll call it even.

Assorted Minor Predictions

• Dallas won't use their open Designated Player spot during the summer transfer window
• Petar Musa will score at least one goal for Croatia during the World Cup
• Consequently, Musa will NOT be sold by FC Dallas during the season
• Four players will make the All Star Game: Musa, Logan Farrington, Osaze Urhoghide, and Michael Collodi
• Paxton Pomykal will play ten or less MLS games this season
• Edouard Nys will make his MLS debut late in 2026
• Ricky Louis, Nic Simmonds, Sam Sarver, and Herman Johansson will all score their first MLS goals
• Dallas' big summer add will be from within MLS be it a trade, cash, or GAM transfer