What's The Best FC Dallas Playoff Matchup?
With just four games left in FC Dallas' season and a berth in the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs clinched, securing playoff seeding is a mad race. Forever it's accepted that having home field in the postseason, regardless of sport but especially in Major League Soccer, is an advancement cheat code. Consider this from fellow FC Dallas outpost 3rd Degree who mused on this topic back in 2022.
Jett Johnson
Even if we accept that home field maybe isn't AS important as it was at the time the aforementioned article was mentioned, as the Guardian wrote here, there are obvious benefits to being home during the highest pressure times of your campaign.
Ryan Baldi
Travelling is hard, opposing fan bases are loud, and you have more control over everything at home. Even Dallas, one of MLS' best road teams, would taken staying in Frisco over hitting the trails in a winner take all situation. Being great away from home is a great insurance policy, but not a plan when it comes to playoffs.
In Dallas' case, they've done great work to assure a good amount of November football at Toyota Stadium. Per the great new website Pitch Perception, here's how the Western Conference playoff race breaks down at time of writing (October 21st):
When you combine the 7% chance Dallas has at 1st place, Dallas is at 82% odds to occupy one of the top three spots in the West post Decision Day. Add in the 14% chance of 4th place, and the Burn have a 96% chance of securing home field at minimum for the first round.
Dallas' position is only half the equation however. Styles make fights, and the postseason is a knife fight in a prison yard to quote Ava Hessington. Drawing a favorable opponent in the first round maximizes Dallas' chances of advancing to the Semifinals and beyond.
So today let's look at who might be Dallas' first round opponent come mid November and score them on a scale of 1 (no concern) to 5 (strong upset potential).
Who's In The Mix?
The good news for Dallas is we can strike two teams off the bat: Vancouver and St. Louis. Dallas can't reasonably fall to the places that will draw the Whitecaps off the top, and unless both teams form changes its hard envisioning how St. Louis and Dallas would square off in a best of three. This trio are the West's best, and as a result will see each other in the later rounds if they do at all.
That leads us to the next clump of teams extending from 4th to 6th. Houston, LAFC, and San Jose could all end up in 6th, which would be Dallas' matchup as of press time. They could also be waiting at 5th should Dallas drop to 4th, which Pitch Perception has as a 14% chance as of now. So all three clubs are on Dallas' radar.
Should Dallas move up to 2nd or higher, they start monitoring a different group: 7th place Seattle, 8th place LA Galaxy, and 9th place Colorado. Sorry to Real Salt Lake, they appear to be the first one out based on current projections. These three will be in Dallas' Decision Day position from last season: Fighting to NOT be in the play-in.
Six potential opponents, six different opponents, all with varying degrees of history with the Hoops. Using their current position in the table, let's talk through it.
San Jose
MLS' early season darlings, Bruce Arena's group came out like a house of fire at first whistle. Despite that early run of form fizzling out, the Quakes are still over indexing off preseason expectations. Coming into their Toyota Stadium visit on Saturday, they're undefeated in their last nine matches. In that span they've drawn and beaten Houston, drawn LAFC, and most impressively drawn Supporter's Shield favorites Nashville. Arena's team is a tough out.
Dallas did exorcise some demons against the Quakes back in May, winning 3-2 at Paypal Park for the first time in forever. Hey, did anything else happen that night in San Jose?
Oh yeah, the night Stone Cold Sam Sarver was born.
While Sarver will miss out the return match Saturday due to his middle finger induced red card in Houston, the rest of the squad should be locked in for this possible playoff preview. This is a scary roster to face any day: Preston Judd has 16 goals, Niko Tsakiris is a 22 under 22 list occupant who is lethal when healthy, Timo Werner is a demon on the dribble while having Champions League experience, and it's all masterminded by MLS's winning manager ever.
Put another way: Avoid the Quakes at all cost.
Threat score: 4
Houston
Fresh in everyone's mind after the latest Texas Derby this past Saturday, when it comes to narrative this can't be beat. MLS is salivating to book this matchup because of the blockbuster entertainment factor. While it'd be box office for the league, it'd be terrible for Dallas.
Not because the matchup itself is bad. Dallas won 4-3 in Frisco, drew 2-2 in Houston and could have easily gotten all three points if a couple other things went their way. Dallas can hang with Houston, and I'm comfortable saying they're the better team overall.
Rivalry games are different animals however; we saw that just this past weekend. The intensity is up several notches, the familiarity means you can't sneak up on your opponent, making it a test like nothing else. Now put all that in the white hot fire that is the MLS playoffs, and it's something I want to avoid for three potential games. Even if Dallas got through a Derby series, I'd be afraid that they'd be sitting ducks for their next opponent through no fault of their own.
Fans may clamor for it, the league definitely is, but not this writer. No thank you.
Threat score: 6 (5 isn't enough)
LAFC
What to say about the Black and Gold? It's been a season of turmoil for LAFC, including firing a first year manager midway through the season. A team Sharpied into the top four normally is instead almost guaranteed to travel for their first playoff game in 2026. If you had said coming into the year St. Louis, Dallas, San Jose, and Houston would all be above LAFC at this point in the year you'd have been called a fool.
Yet here we are.
Even with disappointment all over this season for LAFC, they're still a danger to whoever draws them in the playoffs. Big time players make a difference in the postseason, and LAFC has two aces in Denis Bouanga and Heung-Min Son. 17 goals/9 assists for Bouanga, 7 goals/15 assists for Son with three games left on their schedule. That's a formidable duo...however it is just that, a duo.
LAFC's greatest strength is their weakness. If Bouanga/Son aren't on, they can be had. Just ask Dallas, who beat LAFC 1-nil when those two (and several others) missed out due to international duty. Even when these teams played in LA, it was the now departed David Martinez who scored the game's only goal. They're a load bearing pair, and as of late it hasn't held much weight.
Between that, an interim manager, and a club seemingly doubting themselves for the first time in years this is probably the most attractive an opponent LAFC has ever been. Are they a problem? Yes. Are they the same death machine from a couple years ago? Not at all.
Threat score: 2.5
Seattle
If you just looked at the table and results, you'd be tempted to say "Oh Seattle is just like LAFC, they're having a down year too." Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Seattle did have a downturn to start the season, but because almost every first team player took a turn on the injury report. Brian Schmetzer was calling up Tacoma players with regularity, and the club even dropped a bag on Kansas City to bring in Dejan Joveljic to play striker.
As the injury report became less crowded, the points started to flow in. Seattle isn't going to make a run at the top four, there just isn't enough time, but they'll be a landmine waiting for whoever faces them in the first round. Specifically so for Dallas; the Burn haven't won in Seattle since 2011. In fact through 49 total MLS meetings, Dallas only has 12 wins total including the 1-nil win at home on October 14th.
You have to beat good teams in the playoffs, and Seattle has re-emerged as a good team. While it'll be a challenge for any opponent, Dallas would have the extra task of casting out a decade plus of demons against the Rave Green over three games. I'm not saying they can't, but this exercise is about recognizing how threatening potential opponents are. Seattle is high on that list.
Threat score: 4.5
LA Galaxy
This year's "How'd you get here" playoff team, the Galaxy would host Colorado in the play-in game should current positions hold through Decision Day. It's remarkable that they're even here considering they've been bad on the road (four wins in 15 games) and without their star player Riqui Puig for multiple seasons. Greg Vanney deserves credit for keeping the boat afloat, even if another disappointing season might send the Galaxy in search of a new captain.
LA does have pieces of concern for opposing teams, but they all come with some sort of caveat. Yes Marco Reus has 17 goal contributions this year, but he's on the back half of his age 37 season. Yes Joao Klauss is one goal off double digits, but he's been hurt a good amount of the year. Yes Joseph Paintsil has done great work for the Galaxy, but he's only one man.
Couple that with the sales of Gabriel Pec and Edwin Cerrillo along with asking JT Marcinkowski to save them quite often (a task he's been up to admittedly), the Galaxy have all the makings of a scrappy but ultimately non threatening first round opponent. It's wild to say that about MLS's most historically successful franchise, but this is 2026 and it's where we are.
Threat score: 1.5
Colorado
It's fitting this exercise is ending on the Rapids, because they might be the perfect embodiment of why home field is important. Matt Wells' squad has been excellent at home, winning nine games while losing just three. Away from Commerce City? Only two wins to go with 10 losses. Teams with 10 or more losses on the road this year in MLS: Salt Lake, Portland, Montreal, and Kansas City. Not the group of which you want to be a part.
So should Colorado stumble their way into Dallas' path in round one, you feel good about getting two games in Frisco maximum. It'd be more like three games however; Dallas hosts the Rapids on Decision Day. For the second straight season Dallas could face their playoff opponent on the final day of the season. Considering Dallas also won in Colorado 2-1 in the final game before the World Cup, the fear of Dick's Sporting Goods Park lessened for the Burn.
This isn't the year for the Rapids. They got a king's ransom for young Australian defender Lucas Herrington from EPL side Hull City, jettisoned Rafa Navarro to St. Louis, and seem content building the plane around Paxten Aaronson until the next transfer window. Unfortunately for Rapids fans, one and done feels likely.
Threat score: 1
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