How feasible is a Petar Musa transfer?
As Petar Musa's rise continues, so too does the chatter among supporters and others around him potentially leaving Frisco. Dallas president Dan Hunt in the season opening press conference said the club received offers for Musa this winter, but held off on transferring the Designated Player striker.
Early on that decision has paid dividends. Musa has seven goals in six games, tied with Nashville's Sam Surridge for tops in MLS. He's tied for third in total shots with LAFC's Denis Bouanga and tied for first in shots on target with NYCFC's Nicolás Fernández and the Galaxy's Gabriel Pec. The Croatian is dominating in every way, poised for his best season ever. That's saying something coming off an 19 goal full season, 18 goal regular season in 2025.
It's natural that Musa's talents could draw him interest abroad. He's never been hotter, has experience overseas with Benfica, and MLS has long been a stepping stone to bigger things. Couple that with Musa's likely inclusion in the Croatia World Cup squad this summer and it theoretically adds up.
Despite that mountain of evidence, I'm skeptical if not doubtful that Musa departs Frisco anytime soon. Because for as much evidence as there is for Musa's leaving, there's a large stack that says it won't happen.
What Is Musa Worth?
The multi million dollar question is what would it cost to pry Musa away from the Burn. Let's start with the basics: In 2024 Dallas spent $9.7 million as a base transfer fee for Musa. With add-ons the final number was $13 million. While we don't know what those add-ons are, based on Musa's performance let's assume Dallas has doled out the full fee.
You've then got to factor in salary. Per the MLSPA Salary Guide, Musa's base salary in 2025 was $2.25 million with a guaranteed compensation of $2.68 million. That's an incredible value: by comparison Atlanta's Emmanuel Latte Lath earned $3.543 million in salary and $4.03 million in guaranteed compensation after a transfer fee of over $22 million. As mentioned above Musa had 18 regular season goals, Latte Lath had 7.
Back to the Moose, it's fair to say that Dallas has spent around $5.5 million in compensation coming into 2026. If you add that into any potential desired fee, we're at around $18 million spent on Dallas' superstar. If CSO Andre Zanotta wants to fully break even, he'll need to command at least $20 million for Musa's services.
Except even that won't be enough. Musa's arguably MLS' best goal scorer, and he's in the prime of his career turning 28 this past March. He's not a project, he's a proven commodity who would instantly supercharge any interested team. That raises the price, but by how much? In my opinion Musa isn't walking out of Frisco for a dollar less than $28 million. That feels light; it wouldn't shock me if Zanotta and company are asking for a number starting with a 3 to part with their striker. If so, I fully support their endeavor.
For exercise's purpose, let's peg the number at $30 million. That would more than cover the fee paid, the salary outlay, while leaving a healthy profit. It'd also allow Dallas to go find the next Musa with plenty left over to re-invest the roster if they so chose. That should be the goal in any Musa sale: to break records and set the team up for sustained future success. Otherwise, let Musa become the team's greatest player of all time and an MLS legend.
A Brief History Of MLS Outbound Transfers
Before we can predict whether Musa will attract the above fee, we need to understand what teams have paid in the past for the league's top talents. Let's look at this handy chart, featuring the top 15 outbound transfers in MLS with data courtesy of Transfermarkt.
Note: Evander is on there as he was a cash transfer from Portland to Cincinnati. I went with statistical accuracy over my objection, as it was just one data point.
The transfer fees are in Euros, so if you want to get the full value in US dollars some conversion work is necessary. However this chart tells us a couple of important things in related to Musa:
- Traditionally MLS clubs aren't selling in prime players, they're selling young players. 11 of the 15 players are 24 and under, and of those remaining 4 one of those is Evander within the league. That means 11 of the 14 non domestic top transfers are under 24.
- There's not many strikers on this list. Of the 15 players only four (Duran, Castellanos, Pepi, and Hernández) are listed as center forwards. The rest are largely non-striker attacking players like wingers and attacking midfielders. There's also a pair of left backs in Davies and Wiley.
The Case Against Musa's Transfer
If you look at the above data and conclusions, there's two big glaring neon signs that says a Musa transfer won't happen.
Should Musa become the next big money transfer, he'd easily become the oldest player on the top transfer list. The next closest, Martínez, was 27 and only netted 16 million Euros. All the biggest signings are four years younger than Musa minimum, and all of those were bets on the player's upside more than purchasing current quality.
Let's also consider the other strikers on this list in relation to Musa. As of April 7th, here's how many goals Musa and those four strikers scored in MLS:
- Petar Musa: 41
- Jhon Durán: 8
- Taty Castellanos: 50
- Ricardo Pepi: 15
- Cucho Hernández: 44
Focusing on Castellanos and Hernández since at the time of their transfers they were closer in goal totals to Musa's current tally. Converting the Euro fee to dollars based on the daily rate Castellanos' fee was just over $21 million in July 2023, while Hernández netted $13.439 million.
Barring disaster Musa will blow by those numbers by the end of 2026, if not prior to the World Cup at his current rate. That would indicate his fee should be in the range mentioned above, but historically speaking non-US teams aren't paying that for proven MLS production. They're also not paying it for players above a certain age, a category into which Musa also falls.
It's not just the transfer fee that limits Musa's chances. As a DP Musa's salary is Dallas' biggest, and ranks in the upper echelons of MLS. Should he depart Dallas, he'd rightfully want a raise for going to a higher profile league. The issue there is Musa would become one of the highest paid players in his new league too. For context, here are the average salaries for the top five European leagues via Capology:
- Premier League: $3,672,710
- Serie A: $2,322,124
- La Liga: $3,286,151
- Bundesliga: $2,497,118
- Ligue 1: $2,021,408
A reminder: These are the average numbers, inflated at the high end by uber rich clubs like Man City and Real Madrid. The reality is Musa with a commiserate raise to stature and production would make him one of the highest paid players on most any team. We've already seen this be a roadblock for another Dallas DP: Jesús Ferreira. His salary (mixed with his downturn in production) made moving him abroad more difficult.
While Musa's production isn't in dispute, the market forces might be prohibitive. Clubs that can afford him likely already have multiple players in his place, clubs that don't have players might be reluctant to lay out the money on a player they almost certainly wouldn't recoup a transfer fee on later. It's a narrow market gap, but it's one the Moose unfortunately sits right within.
MLS's aforementioned perception as a stepping stone league is also holding back Musa. Clubs around the world might think "Well it's a lesser league, he's a big fish in a small pond" which drives down his perceived value. Should it? Not to anyone watching Musa play, no. He's a beast, a true leader, and someone who makes your entire team better. Especially when you see teams taking chances on players who often can't rent cars as opposed to legit performers.
Conclusion
Bottom line: If Musa's transfer was going to break the bank, it'd be breaking thirty plus years of precedent for a never before seen event. The only real way for Dallas to get fair market value would be to set a new outbound record, but Musa's general profile doesn't fit.
He's not a wunderkind, he's not a teenager, and he's not likely to generate a huge profit for his next club. That's not the MO of clubs looking to sign MLS players.
This isn't an indictment of Musa as a player. He's a fantastic striker who in any reasonable soccer economy would be sold for a fortune as a proven goal scorer to any club needing as such. Despite that the transfer market isn't solely about acquiring production and team improvement. Too often the idea is lining pockets, not lining up trophies.
All of this leads me to the belief that Petar Musa will not be transferred away from FC Dallas. Not because he doesn't deserve it, not because he hasn't proven his tremendous value, but because the market around him isn't conducive to meeting the requirements for such a deal.
Maybe I'm wrong and there's a team somewhere that can't wait to stroke a check for around $30 million for Musa. They'd be foolish not to based on his outstanding tenure in Frisco. There's just nothing in the history of the MLS transfer market that says it'll happen. It's not what clubs have traditionally done, and there's zero indication of someone bucking that trend.
Which is great news for FC Dallas. As much as this club has been about flipping players for big sums, Musa becoming a franchise icon is worth more than any potential low ball offer. At his going rate he could be the team's greatest player period above names like Kreis, Cooper, Ferreira, Diaz, and others. It's not hyperbolic to say at his current trajectory, Musa could reach statue territory should he finish his career in Frisco.
The Cowboys have Tom Landry, Roger Staubach, the Triplets, and others. The Rangers have Nolan Ryan and Pudge Rodriguez. The Mavericks have Dirk Nowitzki, the Stars Mike Modano. True legends of the crest that sit atop history, occupying forever a place in the minds and hearts of fans. Musa could be that player, and I daresay will be based on the evidence before us.
I finish with a plea to my fellow supporters: Stop fearing that which has never happened. Enjoy what is in front of you, while understand that the likelihood is it will continue. There's nothing wrong with optimism, there's no shame in being excited about the future. That looming dread is just the unknown scaring us, but as I've detailed today it's not the unknown. It's all very transparent, and it says Musa's odds of leaving aren't as high as people think.
Sit back, relax, throw up the antlers, and let's watch a legend be born before our very eyes. It's like a comet or a meteor, a flash that comes along only once so often. Embrace it, enjoy it, love it, and appreciate it.
Because it may not come around ever again.
