The FC Dallas playoff math with four games left

It's the most wonderful time of the MLS year: the time when fans and pundits alike participate in complicated math to understand potential postseason scenarios. As the margins become minuscule on pitch, the calculations off pitch become complex.

After last year's down season for FC Dallas that featured no extra soccer, 2025 has plunged us back into the equation zone. If the tradeoff for playing past Decision Day is a little extra ciphering, so be it.

Let's figure out what the math says about FC Dallas' playoff path and how that intersects with the rest of the Western Conference vying for those precious playoff spots.

FC Dallas' potential points

Ahead of Saturday's road match against Portland, Dallas is sitting on four matches left and 37 points. That lets Dallas max out at 49 points if they go undefeated down the stretch. 49 points makes their ceiling at best 5th place in the West, as LAFC has clinched a playoff spot with 50 points and five games left.

That leaves Dallas realistically contending with seven other teams for five playoff spots. St. Louis City is still in the running but with a max points of 37 AND five different elimination scenarios for Matchday 37 (including a FC Dallas win or draw), they're all but eliminated.

Meaning the clubs Dallas is contending with are:

• Seattle (5th place, 45 points, four games left)
• Austin (6th place, 44 points, four games left)
• Portland (7th place, 43 points, three games left)
• Colorado (8th place, 39 points, three games left)
• Houston (10th place, 36 points, three games left)
• San Jose (11th place, 35 points, three games left)
• Real Salt Lake (12th place, 34 points, four games left)

The competition's potential points

Seattle: Can max out at 57 points. Have to face both Portland and Salt Lake in their final four games.

Austin: Can max out at 56 points. Finish their season against San Jose.

Portland: Can max out at 52 points. Have to play Dallas and Seattle in their final three games.

Colorado: Can max out at 48 points. Have to play Real Salt Lake in their final three games.

Houston: Can max out at 45 points. They face none of the above teams in their final three games.

San Jose: Can max out at 44 points. Three games left and finish their season against Austin.

Real Salt Lake: Can max out at 46 points. Face Austin, Colorado, and Seattle in their final four games.

Realistic outcomes

While it'd be nice, the Burn are unlikely to catch the Sounders or Austin FC. Dallas would have to go undefeated AND need results to go their way to have even an outside chance. Is it impossible? No. Is it likely? Not at all.

Portland however is attainable if not difficult. The two square off Saturday in a huge six pointer at Providence Park. The Burn got a little help via a late Brian White goal, forcing a 1-1 draw between Portland and Vancouver Wednesday night. Post Dallas, Portland gets Seattle and San Diego which is a difficult pair of match-ups. If Dallas takes care of business Saturday, Portland's schedule could do the Toros' work for them. Worth noting: Dallas has only two wins in 16 chances at Portland.

Meanwhile eighth place seems like Dallas' likely landing spot. After beating Colorado 3-1 last Saturday at Toyota Stadium, they put themselves in the driver's seat for hosting the play-in game. Dallas has a game in hand on Colorado and can max out with one more point. The Rapids don't have an easy slate either; they host Minnesota and LAFC with a visit to Salt Lake in between. For a team scuffling down the stretch, that's not the trio you want to see on your fixture list.

If I had to put a dollar on what outcome ends up happening, it's Dallas hosting Houston in the play-in game. The Dynamo only have three games: Nashville, San Diego, and Kansas City. While the first two games are nasty in theory, MLS has a funny way of getting weird as the season ends. It's not hard to envision Houston winning on Decision Day while pulling two draws before. That'd put them at 41, which might be enough if Colorado can't pull it together.

Despite being lower in the table, Salt Lake has better odds of leaping up over San Jose. RSL run a gauntlet of potential playoff squads with Austin, Colorado, and Seattle before finishing with St. Louis. That extra game in hand could be critical, especially with St. Louis City being the final game.

Meanwhile San Jose got handed a gauntlet to close out: away to San Diego and Vancouver before closing against Austin at PayPal Park. That's not the trio you want if you're clinging to playoff relevance.

In conclusion

After wandering in the woods during the Lucho Acosta tenure, Dallas' playoff future is in their own hands. All they've got to do is take care of business and they'll be in MLS' second season. How high they can fly will rely on how much help the Toros receive along the way.