Three Critical Things For FC Dallas' MLS Cup Hopes

With the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs beginning in just over a week every club is asking the same question: How can we take the trophy home? Some teams are heavy favorites, while others will take up Cinderella's mantle as they strive in adding a star above their crest.

For FC Dallas that journey is the easiest its been in a long time but still quite difficult. This year's postseason field is stacked both with season long juggernauts and recent hot streak enjoyers, meaning the Burn have their work cut out for them.

If you somehow haven't seen it, this is the playoff bracket:

Notably MLS doesn't re-seed, so the path is straightforward but not simple. While we'll have a first round preview coming next week breaking down Dallas-Portland in depth, let's highlight three things Dallas needs to do or have go their way in order to hoist MLS' greatest prize.

Beating Portland In Two Matches

Round One is the only portion of this playoff featuring a best of three format, which feels asinine but another discussion for another time. Reality is you need two wins to advance to the Semifinals, and for Dallas' sake taking care of business in the first two matches is critical.

Dallas' schedule lucked out as they get a full week between games one and two, meaning they can rest and recharge before travelling to Portland with hopes of sweeping the Timbers. Should game three be necessary, Dallas would play not the next Saturday but the following Wednesday, all while having to recover not just from a game but west coast travel also.

Per MLS the Semifinals are slated for December 5th and 6th meaning if you go to game three in Frisco, you'll have less time to recover even if you draw the Sunday date. Whereas if you win the first two you return home on the 29th, and you've got at worst five days before the semifinals six at best. All the while for Dallas you won't have to leave Frisco in that time.

The importance of home field shines through in this one because even in the worst case scenarios teams up until the Western finals have to visit Frisco.. Maximizing that advantage however means taking care of business while hoping your next opponent doesn't, letting you be as fresh as possible. Dallas needs to cut down Portland in two games, setting them up for future success.

Hope For Top Seed Upsets

Moving to something out of Dallas' control, this year's playoff field is led by two of MLS's strongest conference winners in awhile. Nashville SC set a new single season points record en route to the Supporter's Shield. Not only that, the Coyotes did it while not losing a single home game. If Dallas makes it through the West, Nashville is likely waiting for them at Geodis Park. That's not ideal, so if you're the Hoops you're hoping some of the NFL's Titans disaster rubs off on their MLS counterparts.

Meanwhile on the Western side Vancouver posted a good season, but do have concerns that Nashville doesn't. The biggest being their form since selling midfielder Sebastian Berhalter to EFL Championship side Middlesbrough mid-season. Post sale, the Caps are closer to good than great with dips in the areas which Berhalter excelled. Couple that with an injury report that is growing at the time you want it to be shrinking, and Vancouver feels more vulnerable than their fellow penthouse dwellers in the East.

Make no mistake they're still dangerous. Thomas Mueller is still there as are Brian White, Ryan Gauld, and Andres Cubas. They have a fantastic coach in Jesper Sorensen while playing in a stadium which doubles as a nightmare factory for the opposition. Even the journey to BC Place is taxing, which awaits every team should the Caps continue advancing.

Whether its in the first round or the Semifinals, Dallas would be helped immensely if both #1 seeds were upset but especially Vancouver. That would mean should Dallas takes care of business, the West runs through Frisco enabling them to stay sharp and stay home.

Get Petar Musa Back To Top Form

The most important of all these is making sure your MVP candidate striker is ready to terrorize opposing defenses. He didn't get the call from Croatia this international window so Dallas doesn't have to worry about him globetrotting ahead of game one. Physically that's a positive; we'll see what if any mental side effects that brings.

If Decision Day was any indicator, it might have been a jump start to Musa's system. Despite not scoring a goal against Colorado Saturday, the Moose did just about everything else. Per FotMob Musa had the most touches of any player in the opposing box at 14, took the most shots at 9, put three of those shots on target, and generated a total xG of 1.53 on the night. In short: ball not go in, but Musa remained a menace.

Thankfully Dallas got three goals from other sources, but they're going to need ball go in from Musa during this postseason. In his last ten MLS games, Musa has six goals. However if you subtract his two goal games against Kansas City on September 5th and San Jose on October 24th, which were two goal outings but each featured a penalty, that takes him down to two goals in eight matches. If you take the Houston goal on October 17th which was another penalty, you're down to one open play goal across seven matches. In that same ten match span he's only credited with one assist as well.

With that knowledge, suddenly the open play goal drought mixed with the penalty saved against Kansas City on Halloween and the inability to score goals against Colorado there's a kernel of concern about the Moose. Should it be more than a kernel? Not at the moment.

While that Colorado game might have been frustrating, there's a couple of other factors that points Musa's arrow up. The biggest? The return of fellow striker Logan Farrington, back on the pitch after missing a month with a foot issue. In just under 15 minutes of action the Big Dog picked up where he left off, creating three big chances and assisting on Santi Moreno's stoppage time goal.

With Farrington hurt the striker depth chart was Musa and a lot of imperfect fitting parts. Anderson Julio and Moreno both took up the position with mixed results. First round pick Nicholas Simmonds is still just 19 and while showing positive physical growth has yet to get meaningful MLS minutes. Going into the playoffs without the Perfect Pairington was portending disaster. Now that Dallas has their top two goals scorers back, the weight on Musa's shoulder is more evenly distributed.

That is a good thing for everyone, but especially Musa. It's not that he can't carry a team, he clearly can. It's more than he shouldn't have to, and often without his running mate plus the strain of congested matchweeks and international travel the Moose looks depleted. That's nowhere near a criticism, just an observation. Between the rest he'll get between now and game one along with the return of his goal scoring deputy, getting Musa fit and firing for Portland and beyond feels more realistic than ever.