Charting FC Dallas' Path to MLS Cup

Let's start here: I don't expect FC Dallas to win or even make MLS Cup.

The playoff system in MLS isn't set up for teams like Dallas to overcome, it's meant for good teams to advance. Finishing seventh means Dallas is guaranteed just one home game this postseason and that's in round one. Home field advantage in MLS is tremendous, and going without isn't often a successful recipe.

Dallas comes into this post season lacking comparative roster firepower. With just one Designated Player (Petar Musa) Dallas ranks behind teams like LAFC, Vancouver, and others who have more "premier" players. The playoffs tend to hinge on big stars having big moments, which is easier when you have more big stars.

On the other hand...

The Burn are scorching hot going into the playoffs, losing once in their last 10 matches. They punched their playoff ticket last Saturday going to Vancouver and winning, which last happened in 2018. Prior to Saturday's win that 2018 victory was Dallas' only win at BC Place.

Winning on the road hasn't been an issue for Dallas in 2025. 23 of Dallas' 44 points came away from Toyota Stadium. That's the most road points in franchise history, with 22 being the previous record. It's also a massive improvement over 2024, when the Toros picked up a measly 9 points on the road.

Even though there's only one DP on Dallas' roster, his importance can't be undersold. Musa scored 18 goals in the regular season, tying the single season record and breaking the combined two season mark after 16 scores last year. Outside of that guy named Messi, no striker was hotter down the stretch than Musa with nine goals and two assists in his last 11 games...

No, no I'm not talking myself into this. Stick to the plan.

If you're interested in why Dallas is a potential Cup contender, Drew at Big D Soccer did a great deep dive into that (You do need to be a member, but as a member I highly recommend it). In this space we're talking more about the path to a Cup berth, how Dallas fares against potential opponents, and what they might be up against trying to do something they haven't done in 15 years.

First Round: Best of Three vs Vancouver Whitecaps

If Dallas wants a chance at the Cup, their biggest challenge will come right off the top. Vancouver spent most of the season atop the Western Conference before Decision Day, when Dallas and San Diego's combined efforts took them down to second.

With presumptive Coach of the Year winner Jesper Sorensen at the helm and German legend Thomas Muller leading on pitch, it'll be trial by fire even coming off a red card aided win on the final matchday.

The best case scenario for Dallas is grabbing game one at BC Place Sunday. Musa, Logan Farrington, and Ramiro are all eligible for selection after missing Saturday on suspension. Meanwhile Vancouver will be down to their least experienced center back pairing after Matias Laborda's red card in the loss along with the season ending injuries to Tristan Blackmon and Ranko Veselinovic. Dallas stealing home field advantage on the back of a Musa/Farrington revenge game would be huge.

That sets up a must win situation for the Caps in Frisco. Dallas hasn't lost in Frisco since July 25th, better known as Lucho's Last Stand. Fortress Frisco's revival post Lucho helped power Dallas to the playoffs, and could be what gives Dallas the edge in this series.

Above all else: Dallas should do what they can to keep this series out of a third game. The tiebreaker would be back at BC Place, and asking Dallas to win three times in three weeks at a place they've only ever won twice in seven seasons feels steep. Advancing to the semifinals doesn't involve a third trip to Vancouver in 2025 in all likelihood.

Conference Semifinals: Single elimination vs LAFC or Austin FC

Talk about a tale of two match-ups.

If Dallas advances and draws LAFC, they'll once again have to slay a boogeyman on the way to a potential title. Since LAFC entered the league in 2018, Dallas has never won at the building known as BMO Stadium. The closest they've come was that 2018 season, where the Burn drew the expansion side 1-1. After that it's been nothing but losses.

The Black and Gold also feature a one-two punch that's unmatched in MLS in Denis Bounaga and Heung-min Son. The pair have notched 33 goals and nine assists combined, despite Son only having 803 MLS minutes under his belt. Their supporting cast is elite as well with Mark Delgado, Nathan Ordaz, and David Martinez all able to punish the opposition.

In short Dallas would have to do something they've never done: win at LAFC against a squad armed to the teeth with scoring threats in a one game winner take all. It's not likely, but if Dallas did it they should be considered the conference favorites.

On the other end of the spectrum Dallas would be leaping at the chance to face Austin again. The Toros didn't drop a game against the Verde this year, drawing in Austin before winning 2-nil in Frisco. Being able to avenge their 2022 Semifinal loss at Q2 Stadium with their former manager at the helm would be a narrative bonanza.

There's also no way around it: Dallas is a better team than Austin. Musa by himself has as many goals as Austin's top three scorers. While Dallas roared into the playoffs, Austin whimpered losing four of their last five including the US Open Cup final to Nashville. Everything screams that if Copa Tejas got a postseason rematch, the Burn would be heavily favored.

Conference Finals: Single game vs San Diego or Minnesota or Seattle or Portland

The last stop in the West could feature one of four teams, with challenges all around.

Starting with the likeliest team to be there in San Diego. MLS' best ever expansion side gave Dallas the business this season, with a 5-nil win in San Diego and a 3-2 win at Toyota Stadium. Both of those matches came in the Lucho Era, and the road match in particular stands out.

After Dallas 4-3 win against Miami where Dallas won despite being down 3-1, Eric Quill ran back the 3-4-3 they used to overcome Miami. That ended up getting the Toros torched, and post match Quill admitted his mistake. They also didn't have Petar Musa for that game, he was out with an injury suffered three weeks earlier against Seattle.

The optimist would say San Diego hasn't seen Dallas since they switched into high gear, and at some point the magic has to end for the West's top seed. After all weird things happen in MLS' second season, and Dallas could ride the power of revenge and good form to a title berth.

Minnesota might be the most tactically interesting of the four possible opponents. Eric Ramsey's squad plays a similar style to Dallas, being lethal in transition and locking out opponents from quality scoring chances. They also have an elite set piece game off both free kicks and throw ins.

The Loons did stumble some coming into the postseason, losing on Decision Day to the LA Galaxy while only winning once in their last five. They also sold striker Tani Oluwaseyi mid-season to La Liga side Villareal, depriving Minnesota of their best forward. Dallas would need to be on their Ps and Qs if they needed to get past their tactical big brother, specifically in set piece defense.

Meanwhile Seattle is another case of defeating your long time enemy. The last regular season win at now Lumen Field came in 2011 back when it was Qwest Field on a goal scored by Brek Shea. In addition to the history, long time FC Dallas Homegrown Jesus Ferreira plays in rave green now after a huge off-season trade.

There'd be something fitting about Dallas having to go through their ex top player at a stadium at which they haven't seen victory in over a decade. Of all the historical villains Dallas could have to slay en route to the title game, Seattle might be the most narratively fulfilling.

Dallas' only hope at hosting a conference final is Portland, who blew through Real Salt Lake 3-1 in the Western play-in game Wednesday. The Timbers' reward? A trip back to San Diego who blew their doors off 4-nil on Decision Day. Should they somehow advance to the West's final game, Dallas would be salivating. They beat Portland in Frisco already this season, and not having to visit Providence Park again only adds to their chances.

Conclusion

Like all playoffs, Dallas will need some luck if they want to make it to the title match. This run will test their quality, their mettle, and their team cohesion but even so there's a figment of the proceedings out of their control. A cosmic dice roll from a hand not their own.

Should that come up Dallas' way, their journey could be one of destiny. It could also sink them to the depths of frustration. That's the bargain you make when you enter the playoff arena. 18 teams entered, 16 remain, but only one will lift the trophy.

Let the games begin.